As William Hague once told David Laws, the Tory party is an absolute Monarchy with a taste for regicide, and so 2 years in to the first government with a Tory PM for 13 years and 8% behind in the polls, the knives are out for Cameron. What larks.
Reports are that so far 12 (or 14) of the 46 Tory MPs required to trigger a leadership ballot have delivered their letters to the chair of the 1922 committee, with a few more looking at their options.
I'd make a few observations about this.
1. Timing - seems a little odd in the election cycle doesn't it? 8% behind at mid term isn't a disaster just yet. What can be driving this? We've had our own leadership mutterings but most in the party agree that nearly 3 years our from an election isn't the moment to change leader. Presumably - it's the Boris factor. Likely candidates know that by changing leader now, it makes it far less likely they'll have to fight Boris. So for the David Davis's of the world, they know they need to move smartish.
2. The 8 % figure is a little disingenuous - because in fact the Tories require an additional 7% net swing in order to secure an absolute majority at the next election. It is a quirk of the current system that the Tories need to win by 7% on current boundary's to secure an absolute majority, Labour needs just 1%. So the most unhappy Tories - the Peter Bones and Nadine Dorries of this world - have with their opposition to HoL Reform (and as a result the loss of boundary changes) made it far less likely Cameron can deliver the majority they crave. Oh the irony. I wonder what the names of the 12 are...
3. Let's just ponder for a moment the fact that the Tories require a 15% net swing over the next 32 months to win a majority at the next election. And the onset of muscular liberalsim is going to stop the more right wing cabinet do much of what they want. Unless the economy does something extraordinary, can't see it happening...
4. The names I've seen so far as possible candidates for a leadership election are David Davis, Liam Fox & Graham Brady himself, with Michael Gove a possible. It's interesting that Osborne doesn't feature - presumably because he wouldn't stand against Cameron, he'll only go for it only if Cameron steps down (as with Thatcher/Major). I wonder if a tiny part of Osborne hopes for a stalking horse candidate now, leading to Cameron stepping down, so he gets a go at the leadership before Boris looms?....
5. If there's a lot of gossip about the Tory leadership, there'll be less about our own...
6. Remember the results of my 'which party will lose its leader first poll?' a few months back. Would folk vote differently now?....
And finally - I bet the last 14 names are a lot harder to get than the first 14 names. This fight isn't going to happen for a while yet...
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